MLB Free Picks June 9th

Not in love with this morning slate, so going to bet it very light


 

Game 1: DIAMONDBACKS VS REDS


(ARI) ZACH DAVIES RHP

-EXCELLENT NUMBERS VS THE CINCI LINEUP: .209 OBP, .434 OPS, 15.8 K%

-L3 STARTS VS THE REDS: 3.6 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 20.9 K%

-AFTER GETTING HIT IN HIS 4 PREVIOUS STARTS, DAVIES PITCHED A GEM IN PITTSBURGH LAST SATURDAY GOING 7.2 IP, ALLOWING 3 H, 2BB, 0ER, AND K’D 6.

-HAS BEEN BETTER ON THE ROAD THUS FAR: 3.81 ERA, .662 OPS, .287 wOBA, 1.38 HR/9, 17.9 K%, 5.7 BB%, 1.08 WHIP, .234 BABIP

-SET TO FACE 7 OR 8 RIGHTIES, SLIGHTLY WORSE VS RHB: .297 OBP, 0.73 OPS, .318 wOBA, 1.93 HR/9, 24.6 K%, 9.3 BB%, 1.21 WHIP

-CIN VS RHP AT HOME (L2W): 6TH OBP, 8TH OPS, wOBA, 10TH WRC+, 13TH K%, 2ND BB%

-L7 STARTING RHP VS REDS: 4.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP



(CIN) TYLER MAHLE RHP

-VS ARI CURRENT LINEUP: 19 AB, .383 OBP, .888 OPS, 29.16 K%

-2 STARTS VS D-BACKS IN 2021: 0.00 ERA, 10.2 IP, 2H, 6BB, 0.84 WHIP, 15K, 37.5 K%

-HAS ALWAYS BEEN WORSE AT HOME IN HIS CAREER

-AT HOME THIS YEAR: 5.6 ERA, .338 OBP, .745 OPS, .328 wOBA, 24.2 K%, 11.5 BB%, 1.47 WHIP, .313 BABIP

-DIAMONDBACKS ARE VERY LEFTY HEAVY, SET TO FACE 8 OF THEM

-SLIGHTLY BETTER VS LHB: .329 OBP, .697 OPS, .312 wOBA, 0.84 HR/9, 22.9 K%, 15BB%, 1.44 WHIP, .262 BABIP

-ARI VS RHP (L2W): 24TH OBP, 20TH OPS, 24TH wOBA, WRC+

-L6 STARTING RHP VS ARI: 1.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP


Toast Pick: Reds ML (-135)

As much as I would love to fafde Mahle at home, I just can not do it here with his numbers.


 

CARDINALS VS RAYS

(STL) MILES MIKOLAS RHP

-19 TBF VS RAYS LINEUP (KIERMAIER, MARGOT, RAMIREZ, ZUNINO): .244 OBP, .321 OPS, 15.7 K%

-STARTED OFF THE SEASON ABSOLUTELY UNTOUCHABLE: 8 STARTS, 1.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 18.7 K%

-BUT IN HIS L3 GAMES: 6.75 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 19.4 K%

-NOTABLE DAY/NIGHT SPLITS, MUCH WORSE DURING DAY

-DAY: 5.2 ERA, .336 OBP, .836 OPS, .361 wOBA, 1.6 HR/9, 1.48 WHIP, 18.9 K%, 5.7 BB%, .333 BABIP

-4/9 ARE LHB, 5/9 ARE RHB FOR RAYS LINEUP

-CONSIDERABLY WORSE VS LHB: .316 OBP, .716 OPS, .316 wOBA, 0.85 HR/9, 17.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 1.29 WHIP, .303 BABIP

NICE VS RHB: .261 OBP, .578 OPS, .259 wOBA, 0.79 HR/9, 20.1 K%, 5.2 BB%, 1.00 WHIP, .250 BABIP

-TBR VS RHP (L2W): 29TH OBP, OPS, wOBA, 28TH WRC+, 24TH K%, 3RD BB%

-L6 STARTING RHP VS TBR: 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP



(TB) SHANE MCCLANAHAN LHP

-ZERO EXPERIENCE VS STL LINEUP

-IS ON A GOD DAMN TEAR OVER HIS L5 STARTS (CHW, NYY, MIA, DET, LAA): 4-0, 1.13 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 35.2 K%, 2.5 BB%, .227 wOBA, .511 OPS, 0.8 HR/9, .296 BABIP

-8/9 OF CARDINALS LINEUP SET TO BE RHB

-PRETTY DAMN GOOD VS RHB: .242 OBP, .562 OPS, .250 wOBA, 1.15 HR/9, 36K%, 5.2 BB%, 0.93 WHIP, .282 BABIP

-VERY GOOD DURING THE DAY: 1.84 ERA, .259 OBP, .586 OPS, .261 wOBA, 37.1 K%, 4.3 BB%, 0.9 HR/9, 0.99 WHIP

-L5 STARTING LHP VS CARDINALS: 2.27 ERA, 1.4 WHIP

-STL VS LHP (L2W): 22ND OBP, 26TH OPS, 25TH wOBA, 26TH WRC+, 8TH K%, 12TH BB%


Toast Pick: Cardinals / Rays over 6.5 (-115)

I think we get some runs today. I know these pitchers have been good, but so have the bats from both teams.


 

Game 3: DODGERS VS WHITE SOX

(LAD) TYLER ANDERSON LHP

-VERY SOLID NUMBERS VS WHITE SOX CURRENT LINEUP: 52 TBF, .261 OBP, .528 OPS, 15.4 K%

-ONLY PREV START VS WHITE SOX (2021): 6.2 IP, 5H, 3ER, 1HR, 1BB, 4K

-HAS BEEN LIGHTS OUT OVER HIS LAST 3 STARTS (WAS/ARI/NYM): 20 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 26K%

-HAS BEEN EVEN BETTER ON THE ROAD: 1.63 ERA, .243 OBP, .573 OPS, 0.65 HR/9, 26.9 K%, 4.6 BB%, 0.90 WHIP, .254 BABIP

-MOST LIKELY 9 RIGHTIES HE WILL FACE TOMORROW

-LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN RHB/LHB SPLITS

-CHW VS LHP (L3W): 6TH OBP, 7TH OPS, wOBA, WRC+, 18TH K%, 30TH BB%

-L5 STARTING LHP VS CHW: 6.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP



(CHW) DYLAN CEASE (RHP)

-NO EXPERIENCE VS DODGERS

-WALKED 7 BATTERS IN HIS LAST START AND 4 IN HIS START BEFORE THAT, ARE CONTROL ISSUES ON THE HORIZON??

-HAS SHOWN SOME VULNERABILITY AT HOME: 4.41 ERA, .276 OBP, .626 OPS, .274 wOBA, 1.10 HR/9, 35.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, 1.10 WHIP, .279 BABIP

-BUT HE’S BEEN LIGHTS OUT DURING THE DAY: 1.58 ERA, .282 OBP, .509 OPS, .238 wOBA, 0.2 HR/9, 30.7 K%, 12.7 BB%, 1.14 WHIP, .257 BABIP

-4/9 OF DODGERS BATS ARE LHB, 5/9 ARE RHB

-SLIGHTLY WORSE VS RHB, BUT NOT DISTINGUISHABLE ENOUGH

-LAD VS RHP (L2W): 18TH OBP, 13TH OPS, 14TH woBA, 12TH WRC+, 10TH K%, 19TH BB%

-I’M REALLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH THESE BATS AS OF LATE

-L7 STARTING RHP VS DODGERS: 3.2 ERA, 1.01 WHIP



Toast Pick: Dodgers ML (-126)

Muncy back, Cease doesnt look right, and a very cheap price for the Dodgers.


 

Game 4: PHILLIES VS BREWERS

(PHI) ZACH EFLIN RHP

-VERY SOLID NUMBERS VS BREWERS CURRENT LINEUP: 50 TBF, .250 OBP, .461 OPS, 20K%

-INSANE HOME/AWAY SPLITS, MUCH WORSE ON RD: 8.10 ERA, .380 OBP, .916 OPS, .387 wOBA, 0.45 HR/9, 17.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 1.70 WHIP, .414 BABIP

-4/9 OF MIL LINEUP ARE LHB, 5.9 ARE RHB

-MUCH WEAKER VS LHB: .312 OBP, .767 OPS, .332 wOBA, 1.05 HR/9, 19.3 K%, 6.4 BB%, 1.32 WHIP, .308 BABIP

-MIL VS RHP (L2W): 26TH OBP, 25TH OPS, wOBA, WRC+, 20TH K%, 23RD BB%

-L5 STARTING RHP VS MIL: 1.5 ERA, 0.8 WHIP


(MIL) CORBIN BURNES RHP

-SMALL SAMPLE SIZE VS PHILLIES CURRENT LINEUP: 22 TBF, .321 OBP, .579 OPS, 36.4 K%

-HAS NEVER STARTED, ONLY RELIEVED VS PHI (2019): 4IP, 2H, 0.00 ERA, 1BB, 6K

-COMING OFF HIS WORST START OF THE SEASON: 3.2 IP, 8H, 5ER, 1HR, 2BB, 6K VS SDP

-WORSE NUMBERS AT HOME, THAN ON THE ROAD THUS FAR: 1-2, 5 STARTS, 3.86 ERA, .264 OBP, 0.657 OPS, .290 wOBA, 1.78 HR/9, 33.6 K%, 4BB%, 0.99 WHIP, .275 BABIP

-5/9 OF PHI LINEUP ARE LHB, 4/9 ARE RHB

-SIMILAR NUMBERS VS RHB/LHB

-PHI VS RHP (L2W): 13TH OBP, 8TH OPS, wOBA, 10TH WRC+, 11TH K%, 16TH BB%

-L5 STARTING RHP VS PHILLIES: 6.35 ERA, 1.63 WHIP



Toast Pick: Phillies ML (+145)

I said I would keep riding the Phillies until they lost. I love this price. I know how good Burnes is, but the Phillies are red hot right now. Brewers may be with out Wong, who is a solild leadoff guy for them and speed.


 

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