MLB Early Bet Rockies Astros Wednesday 7/5
1 day game... rest are tonight.
Well... it's Chase Anderson day... why don't we start by taking a look at Chase Anderson's numbers through his L3 starts... they're pretty hilarious. He's 0-3... 21.21 ERA... no, that's not a typo in the graphic... he's got an ERA over 21 in his L3 starts.... WHIP is at 3.32... Averaging damn near 3.5 baserunners per inning. I dk if I've ever seen something quite like this before.
To make matters even worse for Chase Anderson... look at how the Astros have been hitting RHP recently... in the L14 days... 2nd in wRC+... 3rd in OPS. Houston has caught fire against righties.
Here are the L6 righty starters to pitch against the Astros... you can see right on top... Eovaldi blanked em... 7 shutout innings... but look at the 5 before that. Rocked Jon Gray... rocked Wainwright... rocked Mikolas... rocked Gonsolin... rocked Bobby Thriller. Chase Anderson shouldn't stand a chance in this matchup on paper.
On the other side... we've got JP France throwing... and he just had a great June. He made 5 starts... 2.43 ERA.. 1.14 WHIP... now the FIP and xFIP numbers indicate that there's probably some regression coming his way... but overall... can't be mad at how he's performing recently. Keep in mind... he is a rookie.
He's set to pitch against this Rockies lineup that has some confusing looking numbers against RHP... 6th in AVG... but 30th in ISO... 22nd in wRC+... remember... the Rockies play in Coors Field... so a lot of their surface level offensive numbers are gonna be skewed.
So let's look at the Rockies numbers against RHP away from Coors Field... this is from the L30 days... and you can see... it's not as bad as you'd think it would be. 16th in OPS... 16th in wRC+... Rockies bats aren't a straight fade against righties.
Here are the last 6 righty starters that the Rockies have seen on the road... and you can see.. they're scoring runs off these guys... basically... Bryce Elder and Garrett Whitlock are the only 2 names on this list that were able to put together quality starts against Colorado.
Combination of the Rockies lineup being a bit under-valued and JP France due for some negative regression... I think the play here is either the over at 9 or the Rockies TT Over.
MLB EARLY BET
JULY 5
COL TT Ov3.5 (-105) | .5u
*BARSTOOL*