What an awful weekend... we were having such a great July before that BS... let's turn it around and get back to the winning.
ORIOLES @ PHILLES 6:40 PM
ORIOLES F5 ML
The Baltimore Orioles have been absolutely slaughtering LHP. Since July 1st, they're 1st in the league in wRC+ against lefties... 3rd in OPS.
Look at the lefty starters to pitch against Baltimore since July 1st... they rocked every single one of them... some decent names on that list, too.
Christopher Sanchez has been good for the Phillies... but his last 2 starts were a bit shaky against the Brewers and Padres... didn't get absolutely shelled... but gave up 6 runs combined in the 2 starts... 2 of them unearned. I don't have a ton of hope for him here... I think we can count on Baltimore to scrape 2 or 3 runs across early on him.
Now, here's where the bet gets a little dicey... Dean Kremer on the road in Philadelphia doesn't exactly get me excited to bet Baltimore... as we know... the Phillies have been getting to RHP over the past month.
But if you look specfically at the last few righties to pitch against the Phillies...
The Phillies didn't get to any of these 4 guys... they combine for 22 IP and just 2 ERs... so it looks like the Phillies bats are cooling back down... and Dean Kremer's last 2 road starts were both good... he went into Yankee Stadium and threw 7 IP of 1 run baseball... before that, he went into Wrigley Field and threw a solid game against the Cubs.
In the F5... I feel like Baltimore has the edge here with Kremer vs Sanchez... so at +110... just feels like good value.
The reason I won't play Baltimore on the full game is their bullpen is absolutely cooked.
No Bautista and no Cano?? No way I can trust the Baltimore pen. So, I'll stick to the F5.
ROCKIES @ NATIONALS 7:05 PM
I would love to take the Nats here... but the Rockies have seen 3 lefty starters in the last 10 days and they crushed 2 of em. They scored 4 runs on Carlos Rodon in 5 IP... then they scored 6 runs on Braxton Garrett in Miami in just 3 IP. That was just a few nights ago... So, as much as I'd love to take Patrick Corbin at home against a team that's been one of the worst lineups against lefties this year... I just dk if I can do it.
And I just don't see how I can take a shot on Colorado either the way the Nats bats are hitting the ball. So, I figured I'd take a look at the over... and EVERYONE'S on the over. 88% of tickets 98% of money on the over.
ROYALS @ GUARDIANS 7:10 PM
Look at Cleveland's bullpen... they have a serious problem here. Every single arm is taxed. They'll have Clase available... but who else?
I hope Logan Allen is ready to pitch 7 innings in this game... and that's the thing. Logan Allen's only made 1 start in the past month... against the Pirates. His last start before that was against the Royals... he only made it 3.2 IP in that game... pitch count was at 98. If that happens again... Cleveland's gonna be in a serious situation here.
And things get worse when you look at the lefties who have pitched against the Royals this month.
E-Rod pitched a great game against em... before that, the Royals absolutely curshed Tarik Skubal and Julio Urias. Since July 1st, Kansas City is 11th in the league in wRC+ against LHP... so I'm a bit nervous about Logan Allen here.
And on the Royals side... we got a lefty throwing... and not just any lefty... it's Ryan Yarbrough who just went into Cleveland 2 weeks ago and pitched a great game. Kansas City won 4-1... Yarbrough went 6 IP... 6 hits and 1 ER. It makes complete sense considering Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league against LHP in July.
MARINERS @ TWINS 7:40 PM
I hate that I have to bet this disgusting franchise... but the Twins bullpen is a mess.
No Duran... no Griffin Jax... possibly no Pagan either. Twins pen is taxed tonight.
I know this Minnesota lineup is hot against RHP... and I know they just saw Luis Castillo last week... but the Mariners lineup just saw Kenta Maeda also. No Buxton tonight.
REDS @ BREWERS 8:10 PM
OVER 9 OR PASS
Graham Ashcraft is looking great... he's made 3 starts in July... his ERA is at an even 2.00. FIP and expected numbers are closer to 5... indicating that he's had some good luck... this is the 3rd time Milwaukee's seen Ashcraft on the season... first 2 were both in Cincinnati.
I know the Brewers don't have the best numbers against righties recently... but seeing Ashcraft for the 3rd time... dude's due for regression... I think the Brew crew is gonna score at least 2 runs off him tonight.
On the other side, we've got Colin Rea... and I just don't see how we can trust him here. He's pitched against the Reds twice this season... he's gotten hit up both times... once in Milwaukee and once in Cincinnati.
Reds bullpen is definitely used up...
If I had to choose a side... I'd lean Brewers... but I feel more comfortable betting the over and calling it a day.
RANGERS @ ASTROS 8:10 PM
Jon Gray just can't be trusted right now in my opinion. He's been pretty consistently bad for over a month now. In his L5 starts, he's got a 1.57 WHIP... FIP over 5... he hasn't been good.
He just pitched against the Astros back on June 30th... so 3 1/2 weeks ago... Houston scored 5 ER's on him in 6 IP. That was in Arlington... this one's at home in Houston.
And say what you want about Brandon Bielak... dude's got great numbers at home this year. At home on the season, he's got a 2.87 ERA... 1.24 WHIP... both FIP and xFIP both under 4... now you can mention that he's pitched against some weak lineups at home... but still, those are great numbers.
Do I expect Brandon Bielak to shut the Rangers lineup down?? No... but they've only got 9 career ABs combined off him... so majority of the lineup has never seen him before... and if I have to choose between Jon Gray vs Houston in Houston... or Brandon Bielak vs Texas in Houston... I'm taking Bielak.
Little concerned that the Astros are just returning from a road trip... but they got this series circled... no chance they come out flat for this one.
PIRATES @ PADRES 8:10 PM
PADRES OR PASS
Obviously... I like the Padres at home with Yu Darvish pitching. There's also a revenge factor here... Pirates just swept the Padres in a 3 game series at the end of June. Padres just coming home from a road trip... I dk... just too much weird shit going on here.
CARDINALS @ DIAMONDBACKS 9:40 PM
Adam Wainwright has allowed 50 runs this year on 51.2 IP... I don't see any reason to back the Cardinals when this guy pitches.. In his L3 starts, he's got an ERA of 19.13... with a WHIP of 3.75... the man is averaging 4 baserunners an inning over his L3 starts. This is truly an emergency.
But before we just blindly fade the Cardinals... you should first take a look at how this dude Ryne Nelson pitches at home... since June 1st, Ryne Nelson has made 3 home starts... he's 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA. Opponents are batting .431 off him in those starts... 2.66 WHIP.
I'm just taking the over and calling it a day.
BLUE JAYS @ DODGERS 10:10 PM
I know the starting pitching matchup is gonna point a lot of people onto Toronto... if it was Gausman, I'd be more hesitant... but I'm not that scared of Berrios. His last road start was excellent... 7 IP 0 ER 1 H... absolutely dominant... but since then, he's had 2 home starts... he allowed 8 baserunners in each of em... he only allowed 1 ER and 2 ER... but he's not gonna get away with that kinda shit in LA.
And I know we've seen Michael Grove get rocked a few times this season... but actually... Dodgers are 5-1 in his L6 starts including 3-0 in his 3 July starts... and BTW... he's not pitching nearly as bad this month. In July, he's got a 3.60 ERA... 3.62 FIP... 4.15 xFIP.. he's been pretty solid.
Romano and Swanson have both pitched 3 of the L4 days... I doubt they use em tonight. Mayza also threw 20 pitches yesterday.
I feel like all that starting pitching matchup is doing is getting us a great price on the Dodgers in this one.
BAL F5 ML (+110) | .5u
KCR ML (+170) | .5u
SEA ML (-105) | 1u
HOU ML (-102) | 1u
STL/ARI Ov9.5 (-120) | .5u
LAD ML (-115) | 1u
ASTROS ML (-102)
MARINERS ML (-105)
DODGERS ML (-115)
(IN THAT ORDER)