Chances are if you bet on sports you've already come across PLENTY that fit this description. Possibly one of the fastest growing careers in the country right now in an exploding industry... I'm talking about the fake handicapper / sports pick selling scammer.
I explain all the details here in this video as well as below.
Alright here's a list of key things to look for on how to spot em.
#1... and this one is super obvious... if they don't share their results publicly.... they are losing money... its that simple... now people can lie about records don't get me wrong... we will get to that in a minute. But I'll say it again because this is true 100% of the time.
If they're not publicly sharing long term results, they are losing money. There are zero exceptions to this rule. If they are winning money... trust me... they'd be HAPPY to show you.
The reason they can't share their results publicly... on social media or on their website, (if they have one), is it pins them to a story... if they say on august 10th "yo were up 19 units this month!"... they can't say on august 20th "were now up 30 units this month"...
They would start losing followers! Everyones gonna be like "wait you lost last week how did that number go up?" They're gonna get comments from people exposing them for lying... everyone's gonna call BS.
What about bet tracking platforms like Action Network or BetStamp?
Users without verified checks can post all their bets after the games over... so bottom line... if theres no verified check... the entire record could be fake.
So I'll say it again...they're not sharing long term earnings... they're losing money.. its that simple... if they were winning money... trust me they'd love to show you.
if you're using sports betting as an income... its a long term investment...a handicapper is similar to a stock broker in a sense... they're going to suggest investments to you and if you follow their advice you'll turn a profit over time.
Lemme ask you something... would you ever invest in stock or a coin that didn't show you previous progress in some kind of line graph? of course not.... thats the first thing you look for! How has this stock done in the past month in the past year... is this a good investment?
that is essentially what you're doing when you're following these handicappers that don't keep verifiable long term results... you're buying stocks without seeing any sort of graph or history... you're buying it based off a cool social media post or whatever.
Trust me... if they're not tracking results publicly... they are losing money.
Here are some other things to look for... look for this language... this is how fake handicappers / "pick sellers" talk... they always use "TODAY TONIGHT RIGHT NOW" language... most of them will stick to HERE ARE TONIGHT'S LOCKS... I CAN MAKE YOU MONEY TODAY... RIGHT NOW... I GOT THE WINNING PICKS TONIGHT... because they're trying to make sales... but like I said thats not how handicapping works.
If you're sports betting for income, you're looking to make money over the course of months... you're not supposed to be betting in a way that allows you to make a fortune in 1 night... if you're betting like that you're going to end up in the negative.
Any legitimate professional handicapper will tell you "I might lose tonight I dk... I can tell you if you follow my tickets consistently you will turn a profit"... IT'S A GRIND! It takes time and discipline. That's how this business works. That's why sportsbooks make so much money cuz it takes serious discipline to stick to the plan.
Next... look for realistic results... so first its important to understand how handicapping works and what realistic expectations are... a professional handicapper turns over at about 8-9%... for every $100 bet... you should be up in between $8 and $9... for every $1,000 you bet... you should be up $80 or $90... etc.
Now obviously this is an average over a period of time... as my subscribers know some months ill be up 40 units then the next month I'm down 22 units... everyone gets hot and cold... everyone has losing weeks... but over time... 57% winners on even money -110 bets turns over at 8.3% exactly... and thats a solid figure.
if you bet $10 per game... bet 100 games... and hit at 57%... that would put you up $83 exactly.
So if you see someone claiming to be making $200,000 a month...first of all... they're not... BUT IF THEY ARE an actual professional handicapper making $200k a month... that means they're placing $2.5 million in bets per month... so even if they are making that money (which they're not)…. but even if they were... you don't have the bank roll to tail that action trust me... neither do I.
you wanna look for people who post long term REALISTIC results... remember that number... 8 or 9% turnover... cuz when you're looking at results... you'll be able to spot who's blatantly lying.
now another thing I've noticed... people giving out like 2 or 3 picks... what is that?
A professional handicapper is placing a shitload of bets... remember the turnover for even the good pro cappers is 8 or 9 percent... so if im only making 2 or 3 bets a night... I'm not making any money.
To give you an example... if i made 2 bets a night for the entire month... thats 60 bets... 57% even money winners is 34-26... which is +4.6 units... thats what you'd be up for the entire month...
So if you're only making 2 bets a night... you better be using HUGE units... cuz even with a GOOD winning percentage... you're only gonna be up 4.6 for the month.
So if you buy picks from someone... and they give you 2 or 3 picks... be like wtf where's the rest of the ticket... if theyre only making 2 or 3 bets a night they're not a professional handicapper... they're a pick seller.
So again... LONG TERM REALISTIC RESULTS... now if you're on Twitter or Instagram, make sure they have real comments verifying them... now lemme explain what I mean by real comments.
There's different little tricks on different social media platforms to spot em... for example... if you're on Instagram and you see a MEGA MAX LOCK PICKS pop up onto your feed.. most likely posting a perfect 16 game ticket or something ridiculous.
A good thing to check is click on the account... scroll back like 2 months 3 months... and click on one of their posts and look at the comments... youll prob see some comments like fire emojis or thumbs up or whatever... click on that account... and check if they even follow MEGA MAX LOCK PICKS...
Because if they dont even follow that account... that means either A) they unfollowed them cuz they figured out that they're completely lying... or B) they paid to promote the post and those comments are paid for. you're looking for real comments from real followers.
Another EASY social media spot... anyone you see popping up as a sponsored ad... that's a dead give away... they just told you their MONEY is better spent trying to sell picks than it is betting on their picks.
An actual professional handicapper... is putting extra money into their bank roll... for example me... during football season ill be rocking with 250 dollar units... thats where im at financially in my life right now... if i get some extra money i put it back into my bankroll.
Cuz me investing money into my own tickets... is a lucrative investment... im trying to get to 500 dollar units then 1000 dollar units.. cuz my bets turn a profit...
If someone is SPENDING THEIR MONEY to sell you their picks... that means their picks aren't winning money... so their best option is to sell picks rather than invest in their own slips.
On twitter... I know everyone always asks me about the "retweet me" people... the "100 retweets for the free pick"... now the "retweet me" people doesn't necessarily mean that someone's fake or lying...
Its more of a character thing... the "retweet me" people are the used car salesmen of the sports betting industry... does it mean that they're definitely lying? no... but most likely yeah... it just shows you the kind of operation they're running.
for example would you ever see barstool sports... or bleacher report... or espn... or ANY reputable brand soliciting you to retweet their stuff? no.. of course not... cuz they are legitimate organizations they're not spamming their followers.
Anyone who solicits or spams is usually up to some bullshit and has the wrong motives... i mean... if they are willing to make you sabotage your own twitter account to promote theirs.. i seriously doubt they care if you win or not.
That reminds me... if youre looking to grow a twitter following... dont retweet or engage with spammy content like that... if your account gets tagged with those kinds of posts enough times... itll take sooo long to organically grow a following.
SPOILERS... they're gonna post the free pick regardless if you retweet it or not... posting that free pick is how they make sales... the "retweet me" thing is just a spammy way to trick you into promoting their content and ruining the algorithm for your twitter account.
For Twitter... same thing LOOK FOR LONG TERM RESULTS and MAKE SURE THEY'RE ACCURATE AND REALISTIC... look to see if the comments are real... scroll back and track to see if their picks match their results.
Again... if they post live long term results... THEY ARE LOSING MONEY! trust me... any legitimate professional handicapper has no problem showing their results... cuz theyre confident in what they do! I'm proud as hell of my results i worked my ass off for them...
And yeah I'm even talking about the losing stretches... July MLB mighta been the worst month I've had betting in a few years... I lost 18 units... but I'm proud to post that on the website... cuz I'm confident in what I do...
Next always check to make sure they're including vig and calculating the odds properly... for example if someone's posting a win/loss record for MLB... yeah... that means nothing... the goal is to MAKE MONEY... I dont care if you went 5-3 if your wins were -185 favorites... cuz thats actually losing money.
Even during basketball and football season you GOTTA account for the vig this is your MONEY were talking about here... 16-13 ATS is not +3 units... its actually +1.4 units assuming all the bets were even money.
Real quick... lets talk YouTube... of course number 1 is ALWAYS... long term realistic results that update everyday... a good thing to look for on YouTube is engagement rate... which means likes and comments.
Average engagement % on YouTube is about... 3% likes 1% comments give or take... if a video gets 1,000 views... they should have at least 30 likes and 10 comments....
So if someone has a few thousand views but WAY LESS likes or comments than they should... that means either A) they're buying their YouTube views... or B) they've muted everyone from commenting for talking about their losses or their record... so on YouTube, check engagement rate
Next up... payments... yo if someone's asking you to VENMO OR CASHAPP them via social media DMs... HUGE RED FLAG... how legitimate of a handicapper are you dealing with if they don't even have a website set up to accept payments?
Like come on... would you buy ANYTHING in the world off the internet via venmo or cash app to someone in a social media message??? HUGE red flag... my advice is... DONT DO THAT ahaha
Here's another huge red flag... if someone's giving out picks for like 4 sports in a single day... like HERE'S THE MLB TICKET HERE'S THE TENNIS TICKET HERE'S THE NBA TICKET HERE'S THE NHL TICKET... yo HOW could they possibly be watching all that? they're not.
Yes... a big part of handicapping is done using numbers... but another big part is WATCHING the games and making reads based off game film and being familiar with the teams. Use your logic... if they're betting WAY too many sports to possibly watch and follow... then they're just spamming out crap.
Like here are my NBA picks... and here's Toast's college basketball picks... yeah both those tickets came from me... but i hired someone to do college basketball cuz I am not able to watch and follow both sports and cap them both on a professional level.
IN CONCLUSION... so what are we looking for...
long term results
realistic results (remember 8 or 9 % turnover)
verifiable results (real comments or verified on whatever platform theyre using)
has wins AND losses
doesn't solicit you on social media (creeps into your DMs... asks you to retweet... paid sponsored ads, etc.)
bets a full ticket (not 1 or 2 bets)
calculating the vig into their earnings
doesnt ask you to cashapp or venmo them in a private message or DM... that one is still crazy to me
posts more sports than 1 person could POSSIBLY watch
oh yeah 1 more I'm gonna add... charges an absurd amount of money... like come on... why would anyone ever need to charge you 30 bucks for 1 pick if they're a professional gambler?!? can't they just bet their picks and get rich??
I mean I charge 1 dollar a day for all my picks and my 2 guys picks... the bet money tracking on the website the analytics... and the only reason i do that... is cuz it costs me a lot of money and a lot of my time to run and maintain the website.
so yeah... I know its a lot but its important information cuz this industry is unfortunately getting flooded with people who are just taking your money and have no clue how to gamble professionally.
That's all I got... best of luck this year.