UTA @ LAC GAME 3
This is an absolute no brainer for me. The Jazz are the way better team. Props to the Clips for playing em tough twice in a row... but to me... 2 things are abundantly clear... #1 The Clippers cannot stop Utah's pick and roll offense... Jazz are getting a TON of open looks from 3 and LAC has shown me NO signs that they can slow it down. #2 Donovan Mitchell may be the best scorer in the playoffs right now, (Devin Booker is a close 2nd). This man can score or get to the free throw line whenever he wants. GIMME THOSE 5 POINTS
We hit on Donovan Mitchell OVER points 4 consecutive games... I am getting off the train before it derails. Mitchell has hit 6 3PT shots in each game of this series. There's no way he continues shooting 3's at that rate. I'm gonna play Mitchell U3.5 3PT. I am playing a 2nd prop... and I really don't have any analytical reasoning for it... I just think it's a good pick. Marcus Morris has been seeing SERIOUS minutes this whole post-season. I know he's not a HUGE rebounding guy. But, I really think Morris O4.5 REB will hit simply from him being such a big body on the court for 35+ minutes.
I've been staying off the totals in recent playoff games. But, I am going to play this one. The Clips are at home and definitely are going to try and control this game. They run the 2nd slowest pace out of any team in this year's playoffs. Averaging just 92.6 possessions per 48 minutes.
GAMES SAUCE & TOAST AGREE ON
"I'm keeping the write-ups short cuz some people are getting confused. Feel free to DM me on Twitter or Instagram if you'd like some more stats" - Toast
This was actually Toast's pick originally. The only thing I had down for this game was the OVER at 9. But, he made some really good points on our call. Fading Vince Velasquez is usually a good idea for 1. The Yankees are starting Jameson Taillon... who is not reliable. But the Yanks have a far better bullpen. I'm on board.
The Yanks have scored just 3.89 runs per game, which ranks 24th in MLB, but they head into this contest having scored five or more runs in four straight games.The Phillies are 4-2 on their current home stand but it's been walk off 2 of 3 nights, Yankees bring them back to reality.
I didn't write anything for this game because the Marlins hadn't announced a starting pitcher yet. But, finally we see that Zach Thompson is starting... perfect day for that slumping Braves lineup to bounce back.
I could give you a whole bunch of numbers but it's Max Fried against Zach Thompson. Braves lost yesterday. Thompson is horrible, Braves bounce back tonight!
Yeah I like this one. 2 great pitchers... which is why I'll also make the F5 under bet... But not only do I trust Luis Garcia more than Berrios... but I trust the sizzling hot Astros bats more than the Twins bats. I'm betting all 3 of these strong. Astros ML, Astros F5 ML, F5 U4.5
The Twins have lost three of their last four games. The Astros have won five straight behind Luis Garcia, and he was dominant in all five allowing a total of six runs. The Astros have won four of their last five. The Astros have the advantage everywhere.
This should be another blow out. Check these stats out... in the past 2 weeks... the Rangers are batting .160 against righties on the road... Dodgers have Trevor Bauer pitching.... ALSO in the past 2 weeks... Dodgers are batting .421 at home against lefties... Rangers starting Kolby Allard. Dodgers -1.5 all day
Texas is horrible. You saw the score last night. Dm me if you need more.
The hottest bats against righties in the league... the New York Mets. In the past 2 weeks they're hitting .298 against RHP... which is 1st in the MLB by a decent margin.
The Padres bats have been in a prolonged slump. Since May 30, San Diego has scored four runs or fewer in 11 of 12 games. They have gone 3-9 in that stretch. Mets are healthy, and winning, and we getting + money. Thank you!
haha I can't fade the road dogs at +245... a half unit? WHY NOT?
The Pirates are 5-0 straight up in the second game of a series as a dog of +170 or more off a game as a dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits. The Brewers are a money-burning 0-5 straight up as a home favorite of -200 or more after they struck out fewer than 12 times but had more strikeouts than hits, it is before the All-Star break and not a series opener. Milwaukee has scored an average of 1.8 runs over these five games.
THIS IS JUST A VALUE PLAY. WE DONT THINK THEY WIN, BUT HARD TO PASS UP.
THE REST OF THE SAUCE MLB TICKET
"I am betting all 6 listed above... and these"
I know a lot of sharps like the D Backs here... Caleb Smith has put together 2 solid starts in a row... Games at home in Arizona coming off a tough loss last night.... BUT... I don't like the matchup enough to take a shot on Arizona. Alex Cobb is dominant and could easily throw 7 scoreless on Arizona. I'm gonna bet the LAA ML and Arizona team total under 4.
I know... they broke our hearts last night... blew a lead. Here they are huge underdogs today against Rich Hill who's almost been unhittable. This is probably the wrong play... but I am still riding the Orioles vs lefties trend. Also Jorge Lopez is pitching for Baltimore and he's been solid. Another big underdog that I'll throw a half unit on.
CIN/COL F5 U4.5
& ROCKIES ML
German Marquez and Wade Miley... Rockies horrible bats on the road... this is just a recipe for the under. I think F5 is the safest play because both starters will most likely pitch into the 6th inning. I know... never bet the Rockies on the road... but German Marquez has pitched GREAT in his last 2 road starts. The Rockies lost those games 1-0 and 2-0... I trust Marquez and I like the plus money. I'll take Colorado at +130.
CLE/SEA F5 U4.5
Both pitchers are very capable of putting together good starts... both lineups are shaky at best. I could see this game being 2-0 Indians after 5.
RED SOX ML & F5 ML
Pivetta vs Matz in Fenway... I like how I can get Boston F5 ML at -130... tie gets us a push.. I'll take Pivetta over Matz. And I'll take Boston's bullpen over Toronto's
"Please keep in mind... Toast's MLB picks have been better than mine recently. I'm not sharing them in a "YOU SHOULD BET THESE PICKS" fashion. I'm sharing them cuz I always share every single one of my bets with you guys."
- The Sauce
ADDITIONAL TOAST BETS
Pad/Mets f5 under 3.5
Royals F5 ML (+130) (STAB OF ALL STABS)
Col/Cin over 9
Dbacks ML (+100)
Mariners ML (+100)
Pirates TT over 2.5
Braves TT over 4.5
Mariners TT over 4.5 (+100)
Rays TT over 4.5
Dbacks TT over 4.5 (+115)
3 GAME NBA TICKET
JAZZ +5 | 2 UNITS
UNDER 223 | 1.5 UNITS
MITCHELL U3.5 3PT | 1 UNIT
MORRIS O4.5 REB | 1 UNIT
WHAT'S THE SAUCE BETTING?
JAZZ +5 | 2 UNITS
UNDER 223 | 1 UNIT
MITCHELL U3.5 3PT | .75 UNIT
MORRIS O4.5 REB | .75 UNIT
YANKEES ML | 1 UNIT
PHI/NYY OVER 9 | 1 UNIT
BRAVES -1.5 | 1.5 UNITS
ASTROS ML | .75 UNIT
ASTROS F5 ML | .75 UNIT
MIN/HOU F5 U4.5 | .5 UNIT
METS ML | 1.5 UNITS
DODGERS -1.5 | 1.5 UNITS
PIRATES ML | .5 UNIT
ANGELS ML | 1 UNIT
ARIZONA TT U4 | .75 UNIT
ORIOLES ML | .5 UNIT
ROCKIES ML | .75 UNIT
CIN/COL F5 U4.5 | .5 UNIT
CLE/SEA F5 U4.5 | .5 UNIT
RED SOX ML | .75 UNIT
RED SOX F5 ML | .75 UNIT