Tennis Picks 5/1
Madrid Masters 1000.
Start Time Monday, 5/1, 5am ET:Â WTA Madrid:Â Mayar Sherif (+140) to win over Elise Mertens (-170).
Everyone has been patiently waiting for Sherif to make a deep run at the pro level. She's already been turning heads on the lower tours and she surprised everyone by blowing away Garcia in the previous round. She hasn't had an easy road this week so clearly she's feeling good after also defeating Girogi and Kalinina. Sherif hasn't dropped a set in Madrid yet, and before coming here she made the semifinals of a lower level clay tournament. She knows how to work the crowd, she moves well, and she has a powerful game. Mertens has been struggling to go deep at the pro level recently. She is fairly consistent against the lower rankings, but inside the top 20 or even top 30 she struggles. This is why the books favor her here, Sherif is only ranked 59 so she is vulnerable to a loss against Mertens. I just don't see Mertens getting to the quarterfinals or semifinals here, so why not take the flashy underdog who has the momentum and impressively destroyed Garcia? It's a good chance for Sherif and I don't find it to be a crazy pick.
Start Time Monday, 5/1, 5am ET:Â ATP Madrid:Â Alexander Shevchenko +4.5 Game Spread (+105) vs Daniil Medvedev.
Medvedev admittedly hates clay and downplays himself, but I can't be too fooled by that. He tends to complain and then wind up being a big threat. But this is only his second clay tournament. At Monte Carlo he had a tough time defeating Zverev and then he lost to Rune in two standard sets. Historically it's Medvedev's worst surface and he's never made it past the third round before at Madrid. He should like the speed of the ball due to the high elevation, but I don't see him being a comfortable mover out there. Shevchenko has been playing on clay since March and has been slaying on the challenger tour. He surprised everyone by making it this far after playing qualifying. Notably he defeated J. Cerundolo, Wolf, and Lehecka already. Even before the hard court swing he took down Berrettini and Halys in Phoenix. The guy can play and make life uncomfortable for someone like Medvedev who doesn't feel confident on the dirt. This game spread is nice at 4 so I'm taking it.
Start Time Monday, 5/1, 9:30am ET:Â ATP Madrid:Â Cristian Garin +3.5 Game Spread (-130) vs Taylor Fritz.
This is very similar to my reasoning for doing the spread against Medvedev. Clay is Fritz's worst surface, but every year he is improving on it. So far he lost to Rublev in the semifinals of Monte Carlo, and disappointingly lost to Van De Zandschulp at Munich last week. Fritz should have been able to take down O'Connell easily in the previous round here but had a crazy close first set tiebreak. I just don't have a ton of confidence in him and his movement on clay needs work. Garin to me has a better suited game for clay. He's an awesome mover, hardcore fighter, and he can come up with smash winners in tough situations. I think he will like the fast pace coming from Fritz. The spread is the safe bet but I also think he has a good shot at winning so that is under a lean. Garin has defeated Fritz before on clay at Houston in 2022. I like this setup for a close show and for a repeat win for Garin.
LEAN:
ATP Madrid, MON, 9:30am ET: Â Cristian Garin to win (+190) vs Taylor Fritz (-240).
TENNIS VIP TICKET MONDAY 5/1
Sherif to win (+140) l .5u
Shevchenko +4.5 Game Spread (+105) l .5u Garin +3.5 Game Spread (-130) l .5u
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