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Beaver's MLB Bets: Monday April 1st (Part 2)

Only one I loved enough to add was the Yankees F5 Team Total Over 2.5


 

Meneses Ov 1.5 Bases (+105)

 

Fading Marco Gonzales is an American Past-time that I cannot forego to start the season.


He's been even worse on the road his L3 Seasons: .358 wOBA, 1.7 HR/9, 1.47 WHIP, 5.31 xFIP... also his Spring was AWFUL: 8.64 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 2.2 HR/9.


And I think the man in the best spot to exploit him is Joey Meneses.


Meneses has already started the season on a warpath w/ a 5 Hits (1 Double) in 12 At-Bats, and just one of those came against a LHP while on the road.


Meneses has performed better in 3 spots in his career:

-Home: 116 wRC+, .164 ISO, .792 OPS

-Vs LHP: 135 wRC+, .190 ISO, .858 OPS

-Day: 128 wRC+, .150 ISO, .840 OPS


Now let's combine these splits:

-Home vs LHP: 162 wRC+, .193 ISO, .958 OPS

-Day @ Home vs LHP: 203 wRC+, .189 ISO, 1.103 OPS


Let's say he only gets 1 base off Gonzales... he still owns a 143 wRC+, .169 ISO, and .889 OPS @ Home in the Day.


13-10 in Day Home Games when he sees 2+ PA vs LHP, 11-6 when he sees 3+ PA vs LHP in those spots Will take my chances at the +price w/ the Pirates pen coming off heavy usage the L2 days

 

Chisholm Jr. (MIA) Ov 1.5 Bases (+145)

 

Silseth is a guy I like long-term, but he has been CONSIDERABLY worse vs LHB as a SP.

Vs LHB: .379 wOBA, 2.8 HR/9, 6.57 FIP

Vs RHB: .314 wOBA, 1.2 HR/9, 4.01 FIP


And on the road vs LHB it has really gotten ugly for Silseth through 7 Starts:

.411 wOBA, 3.2 HR/9, 7.77 FIP


Meanwhile, Chisholm is a guy who is MUCH better vs RHP, and really only one of the only guys I trust to consistently produce vs RHP in this lineup


Since 22' Vs RHP: 137 wRC+, .269 ISO, .882 OPS Vs LHP: 35 wRC+, .124 ISO, .503 OPS


His best split during this span has been facing RHP in Home Night Games: 146 wRC+, .286 ISO, .914 OPS


And if you look at Silseth's pitching arsenal, 90% of his pitches comprise of a FB, Slider, Splitter, and Sinker... Against those 4 pitches vs RHP over the L2 Seasons, Jazz leads the Marlins in SLG (.624), wOBA (.416), ISO (.318), and BRV/100 (2.2)


If he doesn't succeed in cashing against Silseth, the majority of the Angels pen are all RHP, and not the most talented relievers either.


Coming off a sweep, this is a spot where Jazz should want to step up as a leader of this team, especially after calling out Rojas for lack of production as a leader.


Over 53% of Home Games w/ 4+ PA since 22' as well... just feels mispriced vs a Righty starter Most books have the Jazz line at 0.5 and no alt lines for some reason... FD has at it at (+125) for 1.5 as his regular line while Bet365 has 2+ at (+145) available as an alt... Gonna lock it in there assuming 2+ becomes widely available

 

YANKEES F5 TEAM TOTAL OV 2.5 (-110)

 

Through 2 seasons in the MLB, this man has been UNBACKABALE at home

-Home: 7.25 ERA, .409 wOBA, 1.88 HR/9, 1.76 WHIP, 6.04 xFIP

-Away: 3.21 ERA, .292 wOBA, 1.13 HR/9, 1/07 WHIP, 4.66 xFIP


Nelson has been ESPECIALLY vulnerable vs LHB @ Home:

-.475 wOBA, 2/15 HR/9, 0 K-BB%, 2.15 WHIP, 6.4 xFIP


The Yankees are projected to have 5 LHB in their lineup today:

Soto, Rizzo, Verudgo, Wells, and a RED HOT Cabrera


And they had success vs RHP in the HOU series w/ 136 wRC+, .202 ISO, & .821 OPS. 


Nelson has allowed his opponent Over 2.5 F5 Runs his L12/13 Home Starts


The only reason this is not a .75u unit bet is that Home/Away splits are less tangible than LHB/RHB splits and we have little data thus far. But I think the Yankees should light Nelson up here

 
MLB BETS
APRIL 1st
 

MENESES (WSH) OV 1.5 BASES (+105) | FD .5u

CHISHOLM JR. (MIA) OV 1.5 BASES (+145) | 365 .5u

YANKEES F5 TEAM TOTAL OV 2.5 (-105) | ESPN .5u




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